Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

Win Probability

PIT: 67.5%

DET: 32.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.67

DET: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 7.0

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.69
1	DET	22	0	1.23
2	PIT	16	0	0.90
2	DET	15	0	0.78
3	PIT	18	0	0.79
3	DET	10	1	0.94
4	PIT	2	0	0.24
4	DET	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0