Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 70.8%

DET: 29.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.11

DET: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	PIT	DET
Season SV%	0.886	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	27	24	3	88.9%	2.94	1	-0.06
DET	Cam Talbot	31	27	4	87.1%	2.61	0	-1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.69
1	DET	22	0	1.23
2	PIT	16	0	0.90
2	DET	15	0	0.78
3	PIT	18	0	0.79
3	DET	10	1	0.94
4	PIT	2	0	0.24
4	DET	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0