Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 5 - 7 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 70.9%

MTL: 29.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.35

MTL: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	CAR	MTL
Season SV%	0.901	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	23	16	7	69.6%	3.37	2	-3.63
MTL	Jakub Dobes	25	20	5	80.0%	3.37	4	-1.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • CAR at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	13	2	0.96
1	MTL	9	0	0.50
2	CAR	13	0	1.16
2	MTL	14	1	1.92
3	CAR	12	2	1.24
3	MTL	12	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown