Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 3 Dallas Stars

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 53.7%

DAL: 46.3%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.33

DAL: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	CHI	DAL
Season SV%	0.909	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	25	22	3	88.0%	3.09	0	0.09
DAL	Jake Oettinger	21	17	4	81.0%	4.13	5	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CHI at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	DAL 4 - 3 CHI	DAL	DAL
2026-01-01	CHI 4 - 3 DAL	CHI	CHI
2025-12-27	DAL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	DAL
2024-12-29	CHI 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-27	CHI 6 - 2 DAL	CHI	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	15	1	1.20
1	DAL	9	0	1.08
2	CHI	15	2	1.50
2	DAL	15	0	0.84
3	CHI	9	2	1.43
3	DAL	13	0	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown