Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 55.6%

TBL: 44.4%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.18

TBL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • LAK at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	13	0	1.14
1	TBL	13	1	1.14
2	LAK	10	0	0.74
2	TBL	13	1	0.78
3	LAK	13	0	0.84
3	TBL	12	1	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2