Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions
2026-01-01 • Crypto.com Arena
Los Angeles Kings 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
LAK: 52.2%
TBL: 47.8%
Expected Goals
LAK: 3.06
TBL: 3.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
LAK
Darcy Kuemper - 14-11-9 | 0.900 SV% | 2.59 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | LAK | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.866 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.826 | 0.900 |
| GAA | 2.27 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • LAK at home vs TBL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | LAK 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | LAK |
| 2025-12-18 | TBL 1 - 2 LAK | LAK | TBL |
| 2025-01-30 | TBL 3 - 0 LAK | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-04 | LAK 2 - 1 TBL | LAK | LAK |
| 2024-03-23 | LAK 4 - 3 TBL | LAK | LAK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:43 | LAK | Goal |
| 1 | 06:14 | LAK | Goal |
| 2 | 18:07 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 01:37 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 16:41 | LAK | Goal |
| 3 | 18:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:15 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Los Angeles Kings 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.1 - 3.9