Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-01-01 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 54.0%

TBL: 46.0%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.05

TBL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	LAK	TBL
Season SV%	0.913	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	24	19	5	79.2%	3.69	3	-1.31
TBL	Jonas Johansson	20	17	3	85.0%	2.73	0	-0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • LAK at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	13	0	1.14
1	TBL	13	1	1.14
2	LAK	10	0	0.74
2	TBL	13	1	0.78
3	LAK	13	0	0.84
3	TBL	12	1	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown