Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-01-02 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 44.5%

VGK: 55.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.89

VGK: 3.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	9	1	0.97
1	VGK	13	1	0.71
2	STL	12	0	0.70
2	VGK	13	1	0.69
3	STL	12	2	1.28
3	VGK	9	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.9