Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-01-02 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 42.6%

VGK: 57.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.75

VGK: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	STL	VGK
Season SV%	0.901	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	25	22	3	88.0%	1.98	2	-1.02
VGK	Carter Hart	19	15	4	78.9%	2.96	3	-1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs VGK: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	9	1	0.97
1	VGK	13	1	0.74
2	STL	12	0	0.70
2	VGK	14	1	0.75
3	STL	12	2	1.28
3	VGK	9	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown