New York Rangers at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-01-02 • loanDepot park

Florida Panthers 1 - 5 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 68.2%

NYR: 31.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.54

NYR: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	FLA	NYR
Season SV%	0.888	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	15	5	75.0%	3.03	2	-1.97
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	37	36	1	97.3%	3.40	2	2.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • FLA at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	FLA 3 - 2 NYR	FLA	FLA
2026-03-29	NYR 3 - 1 FLA	NYR	NYR
2026-01-02	FLA 1 - 5 NYR	NYR	FLA
2025-04-14	FLA 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	FLA
2024-12-30	FLA 5 - 3 NYR	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	1	0.93
1	NYR	9	0	0.51
2	FLA	24	0	1.15
2	NYR	11	0	0.82
3	FLA	17	1	1.32
3	NYR	14	2	1.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown