Minnesota Wild at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2026-01-02 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 57.1%

MIN: 42.9%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.14

MIN: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	ANA	MIN
Season SV%	0.888	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	34	29	5	85.3%	3.86	3	-1.14
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	28	26	2	92.9%	2.46	0	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs MIN: 0-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	MIN 3 - 2 ANA	MIN	ANA
2026-01-02	ANA 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	ANA
2025-11-15	MIN 2 - 0 ANA	MIN	MIN
2025-04-15	MIN 3 - 2 ANA	MIN	MIN
2024-12-06	ANA 1 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	14	0	0.63
1	MIN	14	2	0.97
2	ANA	16	0	0.83
2	MIN	33	1	2.14
3	ANA	19	0	1.00
3	MIN	17	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown