Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

DET: 45.4%

PIT: 54.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.47

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DET at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	0.85
1	PIT	13	0	0.67
2	DET	10	0	0.55
2	PIT	12	0	0.76
3	DET	4	0	0.07
3	PIT	18	2	2.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0