Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 47.5%

PIT: 52.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.49

PIT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	DET	PIT
Season SV%	0.893	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	31	27	4	87.1%	3.50	2	-0.50
PIT	Stuart Skinner	12	11	1	91.7%	1.46	0	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DET at home vs PIT: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	PIT 5 - 1 DET	PIT	PIT
2026-01-03	DET 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-01	PIT 4 - 3 DET	PIT	PIT
2024-12-31	DET 4 - 2 PIT	DET	DET
2024-11-13	PIT 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	14	0	0.85
1	PIT	13	0	0.67
2	DET	10	0	0.55
2	PIT	12	0	0.76
3	DET	4	0	0.07
3	PIT	18	2	2.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown