Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2026-01-03 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 61.3%
PIT: 38.7%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.22
PIT: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | DET | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.931 | 0.922 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • DET at home vs PIT: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | DET 1 - 4 PIT | PIT | DET |
| 2026-01-01 | PIT 4 - 3 DET | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-12-31 | DET 4 - 2 PIT | DET | DET |
| 2024-11-13 | PIT 2 - 3 DET | DET | PIT |
| 2024-10-10 | DET 3 - 6 PIT | PIT | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:44 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 17:30 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 15:06 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:00 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:28 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9