Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 49.8%

BUF: 50.2%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.20

BUF: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	CBJ	BUF
Season SV%	0.909	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	33	32	1	97.0%	4.96	5	3.96
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	35	30	5	85.7%	4.31	3	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CBJ at home vs BUF: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	BUF 5 - 0 CBJ	BUF	BUF
2026-01-03	CBJ 5 - 1 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-10-28	BUF 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	BUF
2025-04-10	CBJ 3 - 2 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-02-04	BUF 3 - 2 CBJ	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	16	0	1.31
1	BUF	20	4	2.30
2	CBJ	18	0	1.15
2	BUF	20	0	1.18
3	CBJ	15	3	1.84
3	BUF	26	1	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown