Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 58.4%

PHI: 41.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.33

PHI: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	EDM	PHI
Season SV%	0.874	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.69	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Calvin Pickard	29	24	5	82.8%	3.85	6	-1.15
PHI	Dan Vladar	24	22	2	91.7%	2.41	3	0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs PHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	EDM 2 - 5 PHI	PHI	EDM
2025-11-12	PHI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	PHI
2025-02-22	PHI 6 - 3 EDM	PHI	EDM
2024-10-15	EDM 4 - 3 PHI	EDM	EDM
2024-01-02	EDM 5 - 2 PHI	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	15	1	0.89
1	PHI	12	1	0.50
2	EDM	12	2	0.99
2	PHI	19	0	0.85
3	EDM	8	0	0.52
3	PHI	15	5	2.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown