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Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
EDM: 56.5%
PHI: 43.5%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.29
PHI: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 69%
Over 6.5: 57%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
StatEDMPHI
Season SV%0.9060.910
Last 5 SV%0.8370.914
SV% vs Opponent0.9660.929
GAA2.732.40
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs PHI: 2-1
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-01-03EDM 2 - 5 PHIPHIEDM
2025-11-12PHI 1 - 2 EDMEDMPHI
2025-02-22PHI 6 - 3 EDMPHIEDM
2024-10-15EDM 4 - 3 PHIEDMEDM
2024-01-02EDM 5 - 2 PHIEDMEDM

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
107:16PHIGoal
110:31PHIGoal
114:38PHIGoal
116:08PHIGoal
209:54PHIGoal
309:09PHIGoal
318:50PHIGoal

🎯 Shot Chart

Shot chart for Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0