Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 52.6%

PHI: 47.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.22

PHI: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs PHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	EDM 2 - 5 PHI	PHI	EDM
2025-11-12	PHI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-02-22	PHI 6 - 3 EDM	PHI	PHI
2024-10-15	EDM 4 - 3 PHI	EDM	EDM
2024-01-02	EDM 5 - 2 PHI	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	15	1	0.89
1	PHI	12	1	0.50
2	EDM	12	2	0.99
2	PHI	19	0	0.85
3	EDM	8	0	0.52
3	PHI	15	5	2.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1