Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2026-01-03 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 61.1%
PHI: 38.9%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.14
PHI: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | EDM | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.841 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.966 | 0.929 |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs PHI: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | EDM 2 - 5 PHI | PHI | EDM |
| 2025-11-12 | PHI 1 - 2 EDM | EDM | PHI |
| 2025-02-22 | PHI 6 - 3 EDM | PHI | EDM |
| 2024-10-15 | EDM 4 - 3 PHI | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-01-02 | EDM 5 - 2 PHI | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:08 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 14:38 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 10:31 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 07:16 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 09:54 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 18:50 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 09:09 | PHI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.1 - 3.1