Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 64.1%

WPG: 35.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.63

WPG: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	OTT	WPG
Season SV%	0.872	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	23	21	2	91.3%	2.60	1	0.60
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	23	4	85.2%	3.55	3	-0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	OTT 4 - 2 WPG	OTT	OTT
2025-12-15	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-02-26	OTT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	OTT
2024-12-28	WPG 4 - 2 OTT	WPG	OTT
2024-03-30	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	1.16
1	WPG	12	0	0.79
2	OTT	11	1	1.09
2	WPG	7	0	0.33
3	OTT	13	2	1.30
3	WPG	19	1	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown