Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 63.9%

CHI: 36.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.67

CHI: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-09	CHI 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-03	WSH 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	WSH
2025-04-04	WSH 5 - 3 CHI	WSH	WSH
2024-12-17	CHI 3 - 2 WSH	CHI	CHI
2024-03-09	WSH 4 - 1 CHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	0	1.02
1	CHI	15	0	1.17
2	WSH	11	0	0.84
2	CHI	9	1	0.78
3	WSH	20	2	1.20
3	CHI	16	0	0.86
4	WSH	2	0	0.21
4	CHI	2	0	0.15
5	WSH	6	2	2.12
5	CHI	6	3	3.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7