Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 68.6%

CHI: 31.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.72

CHI: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	WSH	CHI
Season SV%	0.913	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	38	33	5	86.8%	6.00	4	1.00
CHI	Spencer Knight	38	34	4	89.5%	5.40	4	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-09	CHI 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-03	WSH 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	WSH
2025-04-04	WSH 5 - 3 CHI	WSH	WSH
2024-12-17	CHI 3 - 2 WSH	CHI	CHI
2024-03-09	WSH 4 - 1 CHI	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	0	1.02
1	CHI	15	0	1.17
2	WSH	11	0	0.84
2	CHI	9	1	0.78
3	WSH	20	2	1.20
3	CHI	16	0	0.86
4	WSH	2	0	0.21
4	CHI	2	0	0.15
5	WSH	6	2	2.12
5	CHI	6	3	3.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6