Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 56.1%

NSH: 43.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.32

NSH: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	CGY	NSH
Season SV%	0.901	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	36	32	4	88.9%	2.70	1	-1.30
NSH	Juuse Saros	23	20	3	87.0%	2.09	0	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CGY at home vs NSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	CGY 3 - 4 NSH	NSH	CGY
2025-12-02	NSH 5 - 1 CGY	NSH	NSH
2025-11-01	NSH 4 - 2 CGY	NSH	NSH
2025-01-04	CGY 1 - 4 NSH	NSH	CGY
2024-12-10	NSH 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	1.05
1	NSH	19	0	1.18
2	CGY	7	0	0.40
2	NSH	20	1	1.21
3	CGY	13	0	0.65
3	NSH	12	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown