Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-01-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 66.2%

MTL: 33.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.50

MTL: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	DAL	MTL
Season SV%	0.907	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	24	4	85.7%	3.70	4	-0.30
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	24	3	88.9%	4.05	3	1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • DAL at home vs MTL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	MTL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	1.09
1	MTL	9	1	0.92
2	DAL	8	0	0.71
2	MTL	21	3	2.24
3	DAL	14	2	1.90
3	MTL	6	0	0.15
4	DAL	2	0	0.35
4	MTL	5	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7