Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-01-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 59.9%

MTL: 40.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.56

MTL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs MTL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	DAL 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	DAL
2025-11-13	MTL 0 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-01-16	DAL 1 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-01-11	MTL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-02-10	MTL 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	1.09
1	MTL	9	1	0.92
2	DAL	8	0	0.71
2	MTL	21	3	2.24
3	DAL	14	2	1.90
3	MTL	6	0	0.15
4	DAL	2	0	0.35
4	MTL	5	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8