Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-01-04 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 41.8%

PIT: 58.2%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.76

PIT: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	CBJ	PIT
Season SV%	0.909	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	43	38	5	88.4%	4.04	2	-0.96
PIT	Arturs Silovs	25	21	4	84.0%	3.10	4	-0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • CBJ at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2025-03-21	PIT 6 - 3 CBJ	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	19	2	1.67
1	PIT	18	0	0.83
2	CBJ	8	0	0.38
2	PIT	27	0	1.35
3	CBJ	9	2	0.98
3	PIT	20	2	1.66
4	CBJ	1	0	0.07
4	PIT	2	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2