Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-01-04 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 38.0%

COL: 62.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.95

COL: 3.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	FLA	COL
Season SV%	0.899	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	28	27	1	96.4%	3.02	1	2.02
COL	Scott Wedgewood	25	23	2	92.0%	2.55	1	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	FLA 2 - 1 COL	FLA	COL
2025-12-11	COL 6 - 2 FLA	COL	COL
2025-01-06	COL 3 - 1 FLA	COL	COL
2024-11-23	FLA 4 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-10	FLA 4 - 0 COL	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	21	1	1.32
1	COL	17	0	0.99
2	FLA	11	0	0.75
2	COL	22	1	1.30
3	FLA	8	0	0.48
3	COL	12	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown