Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-01-04 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 31.6%

CAR: 68.4%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.75

CAR: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	NJD	CAR
Season SV%	0.912	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	30	27	3	90.0%	3.66	2	0.66
CAR	Brandon Bussi	29	28	1	96.6%	2.92	1	1.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 88% • NJD at home vs CAR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CAR 5 - 2 NJD	CAR	CAR
2026-01-17	NJD 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-01-04	NJD 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-10-09	CAR 6 - 3 NJD	CAR	CAR
2025-04-29	CAR 5 - 4 NJD	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	9	1	0.73
1	CAR	22	1	1.85
2	NJD	9	0	0.62
2	CAR	11	0	0.78
3	NJD	24	0	1.57
3	CAR	8	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown