Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-01-04 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 39.7%

VGK: 60.3%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.89

VGK: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	CHI	VGK
Season SV%	0.873	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.02	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	15	13	2	86.7%	2.84	5	0.84
VGK	Akira Schmid	20	17	3	85.0%	2.53	2	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • CHI at home vs VGK: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	VGK 5 - 2 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-03-14	VGK 4 - 0 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-01-04	CHI 3 - 2 VGK	CHI	VGK
2025-12-02	VGK 4 - 3 CHI	VGK	VGK
2025-03-28	CHI 3 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	8	0	0.22
1	VGK	12	1	0.85
2	CHI	13	0	0.71
2	VGK	11	3	1.27
3	CHI	14	1	1.25
3	VGK	8	1	0.72
4	CHI	2	1	0.35
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3