Utah Hockey Club at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-01-05 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 43.1%

UTA: 56.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.02

UTA: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	NYR	UTA
Season SV%	0.910	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	27	24	3	88.9%	3.40	1	0.40
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	24	22	2	91.7%	3.15	2	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs UTA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	NYR 4 - 2 UTA	NYR	NYR
2026-01-05	NYR 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-11-22	UTA 3 - 2 NYR	UTA	UTA
2025-01-16	UTA 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	UTA
2024-10-12	NYR 5 - 6 UTA	UTA	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.96
1	UTA	19	0	1.28
2	NYR	20	2	1.70
2	UTA	15	0	0.86
3	NYR	9	0	0.49
3	UTA	13	1	1.11
4	NYR	0	0	0.00
4	UTA	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5