Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-05 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 68.3%

DET: 31.7%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.33

DET: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs DET: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	1.32
1	DET	12	1	1.00
2	OTT	16	0	1.22
2	DET	15	0	0.85
3	OTT	22	1	1.45
3	DET	4	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7