Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-05 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 64.6%

DET: 35.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.34

DET: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	OTT	DET
Season SV%	0.872	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	21	16	5	76.2%	2.73	2	-2.27
DET	John Gibson	37	34	3	91.9%	4.02	1	1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • OTT at home vs DET: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	DET 5 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	DET
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	DET
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	1.36
1	DET	12	1	1.03
2	OTT	16	0	1.22
2	DET	15	0	0.95
3	OTT	22	1	1.43
3	DET	4	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown