Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2026-01-05 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 59.1%
DET: 40.9%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.27
DET: 2.89
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | OTT | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.898 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs DET: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | OTT | ||
| 2026-01-18 | DET 4 - 3 OTT | DET | DET |
| 2026-01-05 | OTT 3 - 5 DET | DET | OTT |
| 2025-03-27 | DET 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | DET |
| 2025-03-10 | OTT 2 - 1 DET | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:43 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 13:51 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 07:06 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 15:42 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 14:10 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 07:33 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 12:53 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 06:55 | DET | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9