Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 5 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 54.6%

SEA: 45.4%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.05

SEA: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	CGY	SEA
Season SV%	0.901	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	23	5	82.1%	4.51	6	-0.49
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	42	41	1	97.6%	3.98	3	2.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs SEA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	SEA 6 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA
2026-10-01	CGY 1 - 6 SEA	SEA	SEA
2026-04-11	SEA 4 - 1 CGY	SEA	SEA
2026-01-05	CGY 1 - 5 SEA	SEA	CGY
2025-12-18	CGY 4 - 2 SEA	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	19	1	1.17
1	SEA	10	1	1.16
2	CGY	26	2	2.33
2	SEA	15	2	1.45
3	CGY	14	0	0.47
3	SEA	12	3	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown