Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 63.3%

VAN: 36.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.31

VAN: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Stat	BUF	VAN
Season SV%	0.903	0.905
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.72

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	37	34	3	91.9%	4.73	4	1.73
VAN	Thatcher Demko	20	15	5	75.0%	3.01	6	-1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs VAN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	BUF 5 - 3 VAN	BUF	BUF
2025-12-11	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-21	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	VAN
2024-11-29	BUF 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	BUF
2024-03-19	VAN 3 - 2 BUF	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	2	1.25
1	VAN	22	1	1.79
2	BUF	13	1	0.81
2	VAN	15	0	0.65
3	BUF	7	3	0.95
3	VAN	22	3	2.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown