Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-01-06 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 58.9%
COL: 41.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.14
COL: 2.91
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | TBL | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.924 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs COL: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | TBL 4 - 2 COL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-04 | COL 3 - 2 TBL | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-25 | TBL 8 - 2 COL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-10-30 | COL 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | COL |
| 2024-02-15 | TBL 6 - 3 COL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:48 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:22 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 09:31 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:22 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:35 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:31 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.1 - 2.9