Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-01-06 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 6 - 3 Dallas Stars

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 68.0%

DAL: 32.0%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.15

DAL: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	CAR	DAL
Season SV%	0.901	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	24	21	3	87.5%	4.07	5	1.07
DAL	Jake Oettinger	33	27	6	81.8%	4.30	4	-1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CAR at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	CAR 6 - 3 DAL	CAR	CAR
2025-10-25	DAL 3 - 2 CAR	DAL	CAR
2025-01-21	DAL 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-11-25	CAR 6 - 4 DAL	CAR	CAR
2024-02-24	CAR 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	20	1	1.52
1	DAL	15	2	1.83
2	CAR	17	0	1.12
2	DAL	11	1	0.76
3	CAR	17	3	1.65
3	DAL	13	2	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown