Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-06 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 46.5%

FLA: 53.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.30

FLA: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.88
1	FLA	12	0	0.23
2	TOR	14	1	1.08
2	FLA	15	0	0.51
3	TOR	10	3	2.68
3	FLA	29	1	2.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9