Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-06 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 50.2%

FLA: 49.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.29

FLA: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	TOR	FLA
Season SV%	0.914	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	32	31	1	96.9%	2.75	1	1.75
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	23	19	4	82.6%	4.64	5	0.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • TOR at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.88
1	FLA	12	0	0.23
2	TOR	14	1	1.08
2	FLA	15	0	0.51
3	TOR	10	3	2.68
3	FLA	29	1	2.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown