Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-01-06 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 50.3%

VGK: 49.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.14

VGK: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	WPG	VGK
Season SV%	0.907	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	31	27	4	87.1%	3.10	0	-0.90
VGK	Carter Hart	20	17	3	85.0%	1.81	1	-1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	WPG
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	VGK
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	6	0	0.36
1	VGK	6	0	0.31
2	WPG	6	0	0.17
2	VGK	13	0	0.93
3	WPG	8	0	0.54
3	VGK	21	0	1.26
4	WPG	6	1	0.73
4	VGK	6	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0