Columbus Blue Jackets at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-01-06 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 5 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 47.2%

CBJ: 52.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.23

CBJ: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	SJS	CBJ
Season SV%	0.895	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	36	34	2	94.4%	3.41	3	1.41
CBJ	Jet Greaves	36	31	5	86.1%	5.33	4	0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • SJS at home vs CBJ: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CBJ 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	CBJ
2026-01-06	SJS 5 - 2 CBJ	SJS	CBJ
2025-01-16	CBJ 4 - 1 SJS	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-05	SJS 2 - 1 CBJ	SJS	CBJ
2024-03-16	CBJ 4 - 2 SJS	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	1	1.25
1	CBJ	14	1	1.06
2	SJS	19	1	2.06
2	CBJ	8	0	0.50
3	SJS	12	2	2.02
3	CBJ	26	2	1.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown