Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-07 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 64.7%

DAL: 35.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.44

DAL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	WSH	DAL
Season SV%	0.913	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	36	32	4	88.9%	5.42	7	1.42
DAL	Casey DeSmith	24	23	1	95.8%	1.99	1	0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	1	0.79
1	DAL	11	2	1.22
2	WSH	8	0	0.38
2	DAL	16	1	1.50
3	WSH	15	0	0.81
3	DAL	20	4	2.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown