Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2026-01-07 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 67.2%
DAL: 32.8%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.64
DAL: 3.09
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | WSH | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.926 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | WSH 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | WSH |
| 2025-10-28 | DAL 1 - 0 WSH | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-12-16 | DAL 3 - 1 WSH | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-10-17 | WSH 3 - 2 DAL | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-01-27 | DAL 5 - 4 WSH | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:06 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 02:37 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:41 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:41 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:31 | DAL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 67.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.6 - 3.1