Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-07 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 63.8%

DAL: 36.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.16

DAL: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	1	0.79
1	DAL	11	2	1.22
2	WSH	8	0	0.38
2	DAL	16	1	1.50
3	WSH	15	0	0.81
3	DAL	20	4	2.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2