Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2026-01-07 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 65.2%
DAL: 34.8%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.31
DAL: 2.45
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 48%
Over 6.5: 34%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | WSH | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.916 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.926 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs DAL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | WSH 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | WSH |
| 2025-10-28 | DAL 1 - 0 WSH | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-12-16 | DAL 3 - 1 WSH | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-10-17 | WSH 3 - 2 DAL | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-01-27 | DAL 5 - 4 WSH | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:06 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 02:37 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:31 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:41 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:41 | DAL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.3 - 2.5
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