Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 58.8%

CGY: 41.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.10

CGY: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	MTL	CGY
Season SV%	0.904	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	29	28	1	96.6%	1.97	0	0.97
CGY	Dustin Wolf	36	32	4	88.9%	4.13	5	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	CGY
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	MTL
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	20	0	0.83
1	CGY	10	0	0.54
2	MTL	15	2	1.61
2	CGY	21	0	0.96
3	MTL	15	3	1.69
3	CGY	10	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown