Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

MTL: 56.8%

CGY: 43.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.35

CGY: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • MTL at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	20	0	0.83
1	CGY	10	0	0.54
2	MTL	15	2	1.61
2	CGY	21	0	0.96
3	MTL	15	3	1.69
3	CGY	10	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7