Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2026-01-07 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 64.8%
CGY: 35.2%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.29
CGY: 3.32
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 67%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | MTL | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.973 | 0.906 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs CGY: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | MTL 4 - 1 CGY | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-22 | CGY 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | CGY |
| 2025-03-08 | CGY 1 - 0 MTL | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-11-05 | MTL 2 - 3 CGY | CGY | MTL |
| 2024-03-16 | CGY 5 - 2 MTL | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 17:39 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:12 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:05 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:10 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:56 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 1 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.3 - 3.3