St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-01-07 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 7 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 47.4%

STL: 52.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.21

STL: 3.48

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	CHI	STL
Season SV%	0.909	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	30	27	3	90.0%	3.64	3	0.64
STL	Jordan Binnington	35	28	7	80.0%	3.43	3	-3.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • CHI at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	CHI 3 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2026-01-07	CHI 7 - 3 STL	CHI	STL
2025-12-12	STL 3 - 2 CHI	STL	STL
2025-10-15	STL 3 - 8 CHI	CHI	STL
2025-03-22	STL 4 - 1 CHI	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	11	1	0.67
1	STL	19	2	1.95
2	CHI	23	1	1.81
2	STL	12	1	0.77
3	CHI	13	1	0.95
3	STL	15	0	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown