Ottawa Senators at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-01-07 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 3 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 47.4%

OTT: 52.6%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.03

OTT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Stat	UTA	OTT
Season SV%	0.895	0.872
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	33	32	1	97.0%	3.33	3	2.33
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	21	18	3	85.7%	2.69	4	-0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs OTT: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	UTA 3 - 1 OTT	UTA	OTT
2025-11-09	OTT 4 - 2 UTA	OTT	OTT
2025-01-26	OTT 3 - 1 UTA	OTT	OTT
2024-10-22	UTA 0 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	13	1	0.75
1	OTT	11	2	1.08
2	UTA	8	1	0.81
2	OTT	22	1	1.69
3	UTA	13	2	1.12
3	OTT	16	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown