San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-01-07 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 72.0%

SJS: 28.0%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.51

SJS: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	LAK	SJS
Season SV%	0.913	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	28	24	4	85.7%	4.25	3	0.25
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	26	23	3	88.5%	2.84	0	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • LAK at home vs SJS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	LAK 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	LAK
2025-11-20	SJS 4 - 3 LAK	SJS	LAK
2025-10-28	SJS 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-03-30	LAK 8 - 1 SJS	LAK	LAK
2024-11-25	SJS 7 - 2 LAK	SJS	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	9	0	0.85
1	SJS	10	0	0.71
2	LAK	14	0	1.00
2	SJS	21	3	2.27
3	LAK	13	0	0.86
3	SJS	13	0	1.08
4	LAK	1	0	0.13
4	SJS	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8