Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-08 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 40.1%

FLA: 59.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.53

FLA: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	MTL	FLA
Season SV%	0.863	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	25	2	92.6%	4.08	4	2.08
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	14	6	70.0%	3.35	3	-2.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs FLA: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	MTL
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	FLA
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.62
1	FLA	9	1	0.82
2	MTL	8	0	0.43
2	FLA	17	2	1.33
3	MTL	13	3	2.29
3	FLA	17	1	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown