Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-01-08 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 39.4%

BUF: 60.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.84

BUF: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	NYR	BUF
Season SV%	0.924	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	21	16	5	76.2%	4.48	4	-0.52
BUF	Colten Ellis	32	30	2	93.8%	2.81	1	0.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYR at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	NYR
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	10	0	0.40
1	BUF	10	0	0.80
2	NYR	13	1	1.14
2	BUF	19	2	1.97
3	NYR	22	0	1.28
3	BUF	7	2	1.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown