Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-01-08 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 67.5%

TOR: 32.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.60

TOR: 2.45

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Stat	PHI	TOR
Season SV%	0.910	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.90

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	23	21	2	91.3%	2.87	3	0.87
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	23	22	1	95.7%	3.24	1	2.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	PHI
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	17	0	1.16
1	TOR	13	1	0.77
2	PHI	7	1	0.55
2	TOR	15	1	0.93
3	PHI	17	0	1.04
3	TOR	13	1	0.98
4	PHI	4	0	0.49
4	TOR	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5