Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-01-08 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 8 - 2 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 71.4%

OTT: 28.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.51

OTT: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Stat	COL	OTT
Season SV%	0.919	0.872
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	3.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	31	29	2	93.5%	2.08	1	0.08
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	34	26	8	76.5%	3.11	3	-4.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	17	0	0.77
1	OTT	14	0	0.53
2	COL	19	1	1.36
2	OTT	11	0	0.46
3	COL	11	2	0.98
3	OTT	17	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown