Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-01-09 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 5 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 42.7%

WSH: 57.3%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.93

WSH: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

D. Commesso

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	CHI	WSH
Season SV%	—	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	D. Commesso	24	19	5	79.2%	2.37	1	-2.63
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	23	1	95.8%	3.26	4	2.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CHI at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-09	CHI 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-03	WSH 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	WSH
2025-04-04	WSH 5 - 3 CHI	WSH	WSH
2024-12-17	CHI 3 - 2 WSH	CHI	CHI
2024-03-09	WSH 4 - 1 CHI	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	16	3	1.81
1	WSH	9	1	0.90
2	CHI	11	1	1.02
2	WSH	15	0	0.80
3	CHI	14	0	0.43
3	WSH	12	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown