Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 61.3%

CGY: 38.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.22

CGY: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	PIT
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	7	1	0.62
1	CGY	13	0	0.62
2	PIT	19	0	1.51
2	CGY	9	0	0.26
3	PIT	13	0	0.79
3	CGY	13	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8