Anaheim Ducks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 55.3%

ANA: 44.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.28

ANA: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	BUF	ANA
Season SV%	0.903	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	36	33	3	91.7%	2.50	2	-0.50
ANA	Lukas Dostal	32	27	5	84.4%	3.48	2	-1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BUF at home vs ANA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	ANA 6 - 5 BUF	ANA	ANA
2026-01-10	BUF 5 - 3 ANA	BUF	BUF
2025-02-25	BUF 3 - 2 ANA	BUF	BUF
2024-11-22	ANA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-02-19	BUF 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	18	1	1.02
1	ANA	14	0	0.35
2	BUF	13	0	0.95
2	ANA	19	0	0.92
3	BUF	12	1	1.51
3	ANA	19	2	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown