Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 0 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 50.1%

VAN: 49.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.60

VAN: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Stat	TOR	VAN
Season SV%	0.914	0.905
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.72

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	29	29	0	100.0%	3.59	2	3.59
VAN	Thatcher Demko	24	19	5	79.2%	2.73	1	-2.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs VAN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	8	1	0.88
1	VAN	21	0	1.50
2	TOR	19	0	1.25
2	VAN	15	1	1.07
3	TOR	7	0	0.61
3	VAN	14	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown