Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 53.2%

DET: 46.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.26

DET: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	MTL	DET
Season SV%	0.904	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	24	20	4	83.3%	3.62	2	-0.38
DET	John Gibson	27	27	0	100.0%	3.03	1	3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs DET: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	MTL 1 - 0 DET	MTL	MTL
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	0	0.40
1	DET	13	0	0.67
2	MTL	15	0	0.87
2	DET	11	1	1.03
3	MTL	26	1	1.76
3	DET	13	1	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown