Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 54.4%

DET: 45.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.31

DET: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • MTL at home vs DET: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	DET 3 - 1 MTL	DET	MTL
2026-01-10	MTL 0 - 4 DET	DET	MTL
2025-10-09	DET 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-08	MTL 4 - 1 DET	MTL	MTL
2025-01-23	DET 4 - 2 MTL	DET	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	0	0.40
1	DET	13	0	0.67
2	MTL	15	0	0.87
2	DET	11	1	1.03
3	MTL	26	1	1.76
3	DET	13	1	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0