Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 53.4%

FLA: 46.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.17

FLA: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	OTT	FLA
Season SV%	0.872	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	21	18	3	85.7%	1.91	1	-1.09
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	19	17	2	89.5%	3.40	2	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs FLA: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	9	0	0.55
1	FLA	12	1	0.75
2	OTT	17	1	1.33
2	FLA	13	0	0.75
3	OTT	18	1	1.51
3	FLA	7	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown