New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 55.3%

NYI: 44.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.45

NYI: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	MIN	NYI
Season SV%	0.912	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	28	24	4	85.7%	3.29	2	-0.71
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	36	33	3	91.7%	4.32	2	1.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	MIN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MIN
2025-11-07	NYI 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	NYI
2025-04-04	NYI 3 - 1 MIN	NYI	NYI
2025-02-08	MIN 6 - 3 NYI	MIN	MIN
2024-01-15	MIN 5 - 0 NYI	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	16	0	1.21
1	NYI	10	1	1.21
2	MIN	14	1	1.32
2	NYI	19	1	1.18
3	MIN	24	1	1.79
3	NYI	13	0	0.63
4	MIN	0	0	0.00
4	NYI	2	0	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9