Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Los Angeles Kings (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 62.2%

LAK: 37.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.24

LAK: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

Stat	EDM	LAK
Season SV%	0.883	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	2.70

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	32	28	4	87.5%	3.62	2	-0.38
LAK	Anton Forsberg	29	26	3	89.7%	3.01	0	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • EDM at home vs LAK: 8-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	LAK 1 - 0 EDM	LAK	EDM
2026-02-26	LAK 1 - 8 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-01-10	EDM 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	EDM
2025-05-01	EDM 6 - 4 LAK	EDM	EDM
2025-04-29	LAK 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.66
1	LAK	13	1	1.01
2	EDM	14	0	0.93
2	LAK	17	0	0.98
3	EDM	5	0	0.49
3	LAK	15	0	0.61
4	EDM	7	0	0.74
4	LAK	0	0	0.00
5	EDM	3	0	0.19
5	LAK	2	1	1.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1