St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-10 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 2 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 78.4%

STL: 21.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 4.17

STL: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	VGK	STL
Season SV%	0.895	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	19	17	2	89.5%	2.30	3	0.30
STL	Jordan Binnington	25	21	4	84.0%	2.61	2	-1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs STL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	16	0	1.07
1	STL	9	1	0.77
2	VGK	13	0	0.68
2	STL	13	0	0.52
3	VGK	5	2	0.86
3	STL	10	2	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown