Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-01-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

BOS: 52.6%

PIT: 47.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.22

PIT: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BOS at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	BOS
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	16	1	1.32
1	PIT	14	0	0.81
2	BOS	16	0	0.79
2	PIT	15	1	1.19
3	BOS	5	0	0.32
3	PIT	14	1	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6