Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-01-11 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 46.2%

WSH: 53.8%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.16

WSH: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	NSH	WSH
Season SV%	0.875	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.29	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Justus Annunen	32	30	2	93.8%	2.75	1	0.75
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	21	18	3	85.7%	2.17	0	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NSH at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	WSH 4 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-11	NSH 3 - 2 WSH	NSH	WSH
2025-01-11	NSH 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	NSH
2024-11-06	WSH 3 - 2 NSH	WSH	WSH
2023-12-30	WSH 2 - 3 NSH	NSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	12	0	0.57
1	WSH	15	1	0.85
2	NSH	12	0	0.58
2	WSH	15	0	0.63
3	NSH	14	0	1.03
3	WSH	20	0	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown