Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-01-11 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 7 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 50.2%

VGK: 49.8%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.04

VGK: 4.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 91% • SJS at home vs VGK: 0-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	SJS
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	0	1.04
1	VGK	16	1	1.30
2	SJS	12	0	0.78
2	VGK	14	0	1.12
3	SJS	9	0	0.66
3	VGK	11	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 7 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 4.0