Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-01-11 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 7 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 40.3%

VGK: 59.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.87

VGK: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

VGK

Carl Lindbom - 0-3-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	SJS	VGK
Season SV%	0.896	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	32	25	7	78.1%	3.48	2	-3.52
VGK	Carl Lindbom	20	18	2	90.0%	2.48	0	0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • SJS at home vs VGK: 0-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	13	0	1.04
1	VGK	16	1	1.30
2	SJS	12	0	0.78
2	VGK	14	0	1.12
3	SJS	9	0	0.66
3	VGK	11	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown