Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 47.7%

FLA: 52.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.29

FLA: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	BUF	FLA
Season SV%	0.895	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	32	28	4	87.5%	3.26	2	-0.74
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	23	20	3	87.0%	2.71	2	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.60
1	FLA	17	0	0.59
2	BUF	15	1	1.18
2	FLA	13	0	0.61
3	BUF	14	1	0.93
3	FLA	20	2	2.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown