Seattle Kraken at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 4 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 51.1%

SEA: 48.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.91

SEA: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Stat	NYR	SEA
Season SV%	0.924	0.920
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	2.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	29	25	4	86.2%	3.50	2	-0.50
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	22	20	2	90.9%	2.36	1	0.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs SEA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	NYR 2 - 4 SEA	SEA	NYR
2025-11-01	SEA 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	SEA
2024-12-08	NYR 5 - 7 SEA	SEA	SEA
2024-11-17	SEA 0 - 2 NYR	NYR	NYR
2024-01-16	NYR 5 - 2 SEA	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	0	0.86
1	SEA	14	0	0.89
2	NYR	12	0	0.66
2	SEA	13	0	0.85
3	NYR	12	1	0.84
3	SEA	14	2	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown